EMI: the latest on Terra Firma and Warner Music

An update on Warner's other, ongoing story, its will-they-won't-they bid for rival music firm EMI: Terra Firma is only slowly drumming up acceptances for its £2.5bn offer for the EMI Group. Yesterday morning, the private equity firm said it would extend the offer period to 4 July after only 3.53% of EMI's shareholders accepted the bid (TF will need 90% to get control of the company).

One Numis Securities analyst speaking to AFX said he thought most shareholders would not vote on the Terra Firma offer of 265 pence a share until Warner Music either made a counter bid, or officially pulled out of the process.

But investors might not want to hold their breath for too long: A story in this morning's Daily Telegraph notes that Warner insiders think there is only a 50-50 chance of Warner Music Group finally coughing up an offer. Issues in the balance include WMG's assessment of EMI's balance sheets, which WMG has only recently started to examine; and of course whether the EU competition commission will the give the deal its regulatory blessing.

If EMI doesn't fly in the end, it will make Warner's new business move into the Russian market (see my post from earlier today) all the more poignant and worth watching.

The week in review: new ideas for avatars

This was published last Friday on the Total Content + Media web site. For past weeks in review not posted here, go to http://www.totalcontentandmedia.com.

Today, Spanish telco Telefonica finally announced that it would start the process to sell off the remainder of its 75% stake in TV production company Endemol. The company is being valued at a whopping €3 billion. Since Telefonica floated 25% of its Endemol stock in November 2005, the share price of the company has gradually worked its way up from €9 per share to current prices of around €22 as speculation about interested buyers has ratcheted up over the last 15 months. According to this article, private equity firms including Apax, KKR, Providence and CVD are all circling around the company. Mediaset and Telecinco, bidding jointly, are among the media companies that have also expressed interest in the producer of formats like Big Brother and Deal or No Deal.

On Wednesday I shared a cowhide-upholstered sofa in Soho with Silvio Scaglia, founder of IPTV pioneer Fastweb in Italy, to talk about his newest venture, an online P2P video company called Babelgum. The company is coming in on a wave of online video aggregators, some of which are also based on peer-to-peer networking technology—BitTorrent (which relaunched the other week as a legit, commercial enterprise) and Joost among them. (Joost, incidentally, has signed a deal with Endemol.)

This is what Scaglia told me would be Babelgum's unique selling points: it will have a transparent pricing structure for content providers ($5 for every 1,000 CPMs when providers upload the content themselves); a strong mix of "professional" rather than user-generated content; and an intuitive "smart channel" service that morphs to your tastes based on what you choose to watch, and what you choose to skip. The channel will be advertising-supported and free to watch, as Scaglia says he doesn't believe people will ever pay much for these services.

Folks will be able to see for themselves when the site launches its beta later this spring, but I think Babelgum will have a challenge ahead of it amidst this glut of other online video contenders.

A case in point: online video market got another player this week in the form of Amazon linking up with TiVo for its Unbox service. Users of the service can now use their TiVo boxes to transfer their films directly to their televisions for viewing—something that seems simple and obvious but actually is not that common in the majority of video downloading services, which still largely expect people to watch programmes on their computer screens. I expect that with deals like the one signed between Yahoo and Akimbo at the beginning of this year, the area of transferring Internet content to televisions will be a focus for other companies too in the months ahead.

In another piece of news that underscores the bridge between the television set and the Internet, Sony this week announced a new dimension to its PlayStation 3 that will offer users the chance to play games with other users in "3D." The service, to be called Home, will use interactive elements, virtual worlds and avatars, a la Second Life, but all be accessible via your television rather than your computer monitor. Analysts have greeted the news positively—Sony's been lagging behind Microsoft's Xbox and Nintendo's Wii in the games console stakes and needs a boost of something fresh to drive sales.

I've thought of a good application for business people in this emerging 3D world: This week has been a big one for media conferences: the IPTV World Forum and the FT Media Conference and the Digital TV Group's Annual Summit in London; and the Bear Stearns annual media confab in Florida were among them. As we were finishing with the second issue of Total Content + Media magazine, I didn't manage to attend any of them. But it strikes me as a very good idea for these conferences to eventually move into the 3D world so that at least my avatar could have come in my place.